On Mon, Jul 4, 2016 at 11:28 AM, Matt Hoppes < mattlists@rivervalleyinternet.net> wrote:
Except the lady will eventually downsize. The college student will want more and lease the space.
Also, the 49,000 Sq ft office space that has been leased for 10 years and never occupied will be taken back and released to someone who will actually develop it.
I'm not particularly fond of metaphors using physical resources like land because physical changes do tend to happen slowly and carry substantial inertia. As a result such metaphors break down pretty quickly. Internet numbers are an abstraction with no physical component. As such, their utility depends on how all the different players on the Internet behave. Given that, it becomes a classic game theory problem. It makes little practical difference if there are "enough" IPv4 numbers theoretically available to serve the demand if only better allocated or not. I agree with those who believe there aren't given the demands on the infrastructure and the rate of growth, but that's largely irrelevant. Even if there theoretically were 'enough' legacy numbers to fit some definition of 'enough', do you actually believe the many and varied players on the Internet will converge on that optimal utilization? I certainly don't. Nor is that the behavior we're seeing. We see players who have 'more than enough' by some theoretical optimum utilization scheme conserving the resources they have for transition. We see large players, who have the most influence on the direction software and hardware makers move, somewhere in transition to IPv6. Some are very advanced in their deployment, others are earlier in it, but pretty much all of them are moving in that direction. Given that reality and the way the Internet works, at some point in the not too distant future we're more likely to see the Internet tip toward IPv6 than not. Nothing's certain, but that seems to be where the game is headed. Once that happens, those caught behind the curve are more likely to suffer loss than not. The safe bet is to be prepared beforehand, especially since it's neither particularly difficult nor expensive to deploy IPv6. It's a comparatively low cost hedge. Of course, as more people hedge their bets that way, the likelihood that IPv6 will also turn out to be the 'winning' bet increases, so it starts to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. But some people prefer risky bets. It's not clear to me what you actually gain if you bet the farm on IPv4 and its utility remains more or less the same for a decade. Any cost-savings over deploying IPv6 are likely going to be more than consumed in renumbering efforts, purchasing IPv4 number resources, and deploying/administering CGN equipment. So it actually looks like a lose/lose scenario to me. But if you see some hypothetical advantage you wish to pursue, go for it. But if that hypothetical advantage depends on getting everyone on the Internet to play along with your scheme for optimal IPv4 number utilization? Well, good luck with that one. Scott