Don't forget the home gateway aspect -- it's a huge gaping hole in the IPv6 deployment strategy for ISPs. And don't talk to me about Apple's Airport Extreme. ISPs want (once the volume of IETF IPv6-related drafts has settled down) for every router at Wal-mart to include IPv6 support. If they start right now and presume that home gateways/routers are replaced every 3 to 5 years, it will be several years before they've covered even 50% of the homes. Frank -----Original Message----- From: Leo Bicknell [mailto:bicknell@ufp.org] Sent: Monday, April 19, 2010 9:31 AM To: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: Rate of growth on IPv6 not fast enough? In a message written on Sun, Apr 18, 2010 at 10:22:25PM -0700, joel jaeggli wrote:
Just because the curve doesn't look steep enough now doesn't mean it won't in two years. Human behavior is hard to model and panic hasn't set in yet.
There is also an aspect of this transition I don't think we've seen before (in networking). A large percentage of end users are on technologies (cable modem, dsl, even dial up) who's configuration is entirely driven out of a provisioning database. Once the backbone is rolled out, the nameservers, dhcp, and configuration servers dual-stacked many ISP's could enable IPv6 for all of their customers overnight with only a few keystrokes. Now they won't literally do it that way to save their support folks, but if the need arises they will be able to push the button quite quickly. I suspect the middle part of this S curve is going to be much, much steeper than anyone is predicting right now. -- Leo Bicknell - bicknell@ufp.org - CCIE 3440 PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/