William Warren wrote:
That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded by organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.
which one's would those be? legacy class A address space just isn't that big...
Geoff Huston wrote:
Mike Leber wrote:
Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected until IPv4 exhaustion:
ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do that?
pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement. :)
I keep on saying: its just a mathematical model, and the way this will play out is invariably different from our best guesses. So to say "well there's x days to go" is somewhat misleading as it appears to vest this model with some air of authority about the future, and that's not a good idea!
IPv4 address allocation is a rather skewed distribution. Most address allocations are relatively small, but a small number of them are relatively large. Its the the timing of this smaller set of actors who are undertaking large deployments that will ultimately determine how this plays out. It could be a lot faster than 1000 days, or it could be slower - its very uncertain. There could be some "last minute rush." There could be a change in policies over remaining address pools as the pool diminishes, or ....
So, yes, the pool is visibly draining and you now can see all the way to the bottom. And it looks like there are around 3 years to go ... but thats with an uncertainty factor of at least +/- about 1 1/2 years.
regards,
Geoff
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