On Tue, Jul 21, 2015 at 4:57 PM, Graham Johnston <johnstong@westmancom.com> wrote:
Does anybody have a working projection, or crystal ball, that can provide a recommendation on FIB size requirements for the next 24 months? Are we expecting the IPv4 table to continue to grow at somewhere around 50k routes a year? I came up with this from eyeballing the graph at http://www.cidr-report.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=%2fvar%2fdata%2fbgp%2fas2.0%2fbgp-active.txt&descr=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&ylabel=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&with=step.
Hi Graham, The IPv4 BGP table has been growing by 10% to 15% per year since CIDR. It appears to be a compounding curve, not linear. IPv4 exhaustion is a new factor which may or may not impact the next 24 months' projection. There are arguments favoring a slower rate (no more free pool). There are arguments favoring a faster rate (fragmentation from address sales). No one has a crystal ball good enough to know for sure -- the situation is literally unprecedented. Regards, Bill Herrin -- William Herrin ................ herrin@dirtside.com bill@herrin.us Owner, Dirtside Systems ......... Web: <http://www.dirtside.com/>