On Jun 6, 2011, at 4:41 PM, Matthew Petach wrote:
On Mon, Jun 6, 2011 at 2:36 PM, Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com> wrote:
On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote: ...
IPv4 will never reach those figures. IPv6 isn't preferenced enough for that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 only sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).
I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the internet to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles (about 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage of the future network.
Owen
Hm. With roughly 1B people on the internet today[0], 7 cycles of doubling would mean that in 15 years, we'd have 128B people on the internet?
Ah, but, today, we don't really have 1B people on the internet, we have about 10,000,000 people on the internet and about 990,000,000 people behind NAT boxes, so, in 7 cycles of doubling we'll be at 1,280,000,000 people on the internet. ;-)
I strongly suspect the historical growth curve will *not* continue at that pace.
Likely, but, I couldn't resist pointing out the reality above anyway. Even without the growth curves continuing, the IPv4 internet will become a relatively small fraction of the total internet in about 15 years. Owen