Not necessarily transit - leaf ASN ISP networks (which do IP transit for consumers, but do not have BGP customers) would also be counted in. They do still exist, right? Brian On Wed, Dec 4, 2013 at 1:35 PM, Christopher Morrow <morrowc.lists@gmail.com>wrote:
On Wed, Dec 4, 2013 at 1:32 PM, Rob Seastrom <rs@seastrom.com> wrote:
Brian Dickson <brian.peter.dickson@gmail.com> writes:
Rob Seastrom wrote:
"Ricky Beam" <jfbeam at gmail.com<
writes:
* On Fri, 29 Nov 2013 08:39:59 -0500, Rob Seastrom <rs at seastrom.com <http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog>> wrote: *>> * So there really is no excuse on AT&T's part for the /60s on uverse 6rd... *> * ... *> * Handing out /56's like Pez is just wasting address space -- someone *> * *is* paying for that space. Yes, it's waste; giving everyone 256 *> * networks when they're only ever likely to use one or two (or maybe *> * four), is intentionally wasting space you could've assigned to *> * someone else. (or **sold** to someone else :-)) IPv6 may be huge to *> * the power of huge, but it's still finite. People like you are *> * repeating the same mistakes from the early days of IPv4... * There's finite, and then there's finite. Please complete the following math assignment so as to calibrate your perceptions before leveling further allegations of profligate waste. Suppose that every mobile phone on the face of the planet was an "end site" in the classic sense and got a /48 (because miraculously, the mobile providers aren't being stingy). Now give such a phone to every human on the face of the earth. Unfortunately for our conservation efforts, every person with a cell phone is actually the cousin of either Avi Freedman or Vijay Gill, and consequently actually has FIVE cell phones on active plans at any given time. Assume 2:1 overprovisioning of address space because per Cameron Byrne's comments on ARIN 2013-2, the cellular equipment providers can't seem to figure out how to have N+1 or N+2 redundancy rather than 2N redundancy on Home Agent hardware. What percentage of the total available IPv6 space have we burned through in this scenario? Show your work. -r
Here's the problem with the math, presuming everyone gets roughly the same answer: The efficiency (number of prefixes vs total space) is only achieved if there is a "flat" network, which carries every IPv6 prefix (i.e. that there is no aggregation being done).
This means 1:1 router slots (for routes) vs prefixes, globally, or even internally on ISP networks.
If any ISP has > 1M customers, oops. So, we need to aggregate.
Basically, the problem space (waste) boils down to the question, "How many levels of aggregation are needed"?
If you have variable POP sizes, region sizes, and assign/aggregate towards customers topologically, the result is: - the need to maintain power-of-2 address block sizes (for aggregation), plus - the need to aggregate at each level (to keep #prefixes sane) plus - asymmetric sizes which don't often end up being just short of the next power-of-2 - equals (necessarily) low utilization rates - i.e. much larger prefixes than would be suggested by "flat" allocation from a single pool.
Here's a worked example, for a hypothetical big consumer ISP: - 22 POPs with "core" devices - each POP has anywhere from 2 to 20 "border" devices (feeding access devices) - each "border" has 5 to 100 "access" devices - each access device has up to 5000 customers
Rounding up each, using max(count-per-level) as the basis, we get: 5000->8192 (2^13) 100->128 (2^7) 20->32 (2^5) 22->32 (2^5) 5+5+7+13=30 bits of aggregation 2^30 of /48 = /18 This leaves room for 2^10 such ISPs (a mere 1024), from the current /8. A thousand ISPs seems like a lot, but consider this: the ISP we did this for, might only have 3M customers. Scale this up (horizontally or vertically or both), and it is dangerously close to capacity already.
The answer above (worked math) will be unique per ISP. It will also drive consumption at the apex, i.e. the size of allocations to ISPs.
And root of the problem was brought into existence by the insistence
http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog>> that
every network (LAN) must be a /64.
That's my 2 cents/observation.
Brian
At a glance, I think there's an implicit assumption in your calculation that each ISP has to be able to hold the whole world (unlikely) and/or there is no such thing as mobile IP or any other kind of tunneling technology going on within the mobile network (also wrong from everything I understand).
Also, I'm not sure where "from the current /8" comes from, as there's a /3 in play (1/8 of the total space, maybe that was it?) and each RIR is getting space in chunks of /12...
Re-working your conclusion statement without redoing the math, "This leaves room for 2^15 such ISPs (a mere 16384), from the current /3."
Oddly enough, I'm OK with that. :)
16384 'isp' which is really 'transit asn' right?