On Mar 23, 2010, at 10:40 AM, Christopher Morrow wrote:
On Tue, Mar 23, 2010 at 10:27 AM, Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com> wrote:
I think that the additive nature of the IPv6/IPv4 routing tables will be the driving factor for deprecation of IPv4 pretty quickly once IPv6 starts to reach critical mass. The problem is that we are so early on the IPv6 adoption curve right now that nobody believes IPv6 will become ubiquitous fast enough to be relevant.
it seems to me that we'll have widespread ipv4 for +10 years at least, potentially there will be enough ipv4 alive in 20 years to still consider it 'widespread'. I also think we'll see more v4 routes (longer prefixes) show up in the first 10yrs, before it gets better :(
I think the pressure to start deprecating IPv4 will start in approximately 11-12 years... Now = T0 T+3 years -- IPv4 runs out - Completely, not just IANA or RIRs, but, ISPs, too. T+8 years -- IPv6 nears ubiquity at least on the public internet T+11 years -- Economic pressures begin to drive the deprecation of IPv4.
I could be wrong, I hope I am, but...
I think that IPv6 deployment is already showing signs of acceleration. I think that it will lurch forward suddenly shortly after (~6-12 months) IPv4 finally hits the runout wall in a couple of years.
I agree that v6 deployments seem to be getting better/faster/stronger... I think that's good news, but we'll still be paying the v4 piper for a while.
Yep. I completely agree. Owen