On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 3:26 AM, Neil Harris <neil@tonal.clara.co.uk> wrote:
On 02/01/16 15:35, Tomas Podermanski wrote:
Hi,
according to Google's statistics (https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) on 31st December 2015 the IPv6 penetration reached 10% for the very first time. Just a little reminder. On 20th Nov 2012 the number was 1%. In December we also celebrated the 20th anniversary of IPv6 standardization - RFC 1883.
I'm wondering when we reach another significant milestone - 50% :-)
Tomas
Given the recent doubling growth, and assuming this trend is following a logistic function, then, rounding the numbers a bit for neatness, I get:
Jan 2016: 10% Jan 2017: 20% Jan 2018: 33% Jan 2019: 50% Jan 2020: 67% Jan 2021: 80% Jan 2022: 90%
with IPv4 traffic then halving year by year from then on, and IPv4 switch-off (ie. traffic < 1%) around 2027.
Neil
Just a reminder, that 10% is a global number. The number in the USA is 25% today in general, is 37% for mobile devices. Furthermore, forecasting is a dark art that frequently simply extends the past onto the future. It does not account for purposeful engineering design like the "world IPv6 launch" or iOS updates. For example, once Apple cleanses the app store of IPv4 apps in 2016 as they have committed and pushes one of their ubiquitous iOS updates, you may see substantial jumps over night in IPv6 eyeballs, possibly meaningful moving that 37% number to over 50% in a few shorts weeks. This will squarely make it clear that IPv4 is minority legacy protocol for all of mobile, and thusly the immediate future of the internet. CB