In message <E230DE23-AD00-4F3D-B384-BA52FA7B3691@delong.com>, Owen DeLong writes:
On Jun 6, 2011, at 4:49 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
=20 In message <B53BEF53-F327-44ED-8F23-A85042E99B3F@delong.com>, Owen = DeLong write s:
=3D20 In message <alpine.BSF.2.00.1106060732190.68892@goat.gigo.com>, = Jason =3D Fesler wr ites:
But anyway, just consider it: a portion of the major websites go IPv6-only for 24 hours. What happens is that well, 99% of the =3D
=20 On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote: =20 populace
can't reach them anymore, as the known ones are down, they start =3D=
and thus overloading the helpdesks of their ISPs. =3D20 Won't happen this year or next. Too much money at stake for the = web=3D20=3D =20 sites. Only when IPv4 is single digits or less could this be = even=3D20 remotely considered. Even the 0.05% hit for a day was controverial = =3D at=3D20 $dayjob. =3D20 IPv4 will never reach those figures. IPv6 isn't preferenced enough = =3D for that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 = only sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64). =20 I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the =3D internet to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles = =3D (about 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit =
calling percentage of the future network. =20 Owen =20 And without there being a strong IPv6 bias in the clients they will continue to use IPv4/IPv6 on a 50/50 basis. I would be quite happy to be proven wrong and only time will tell. =20 Almost every client does have a strong IPv6 bias if they have what appears to be native connectivity. The bias degrades rapidly with other forms of host connectivity.
My linux and Mac systems certainly seem to strongly prefer IPv6 from my home. YMMV.
Things like happy-eyeballs diminish it even with perfect IPv6 connectivity. 100ms rtt doesn't cover the world and to make multi-homed servers (includes dual stack) work well clients will make additional connections.
Owen -- Mark Andrews, ISC 1 Seymour St., Dundas Valley, NSW 2117, Australia PHONE: +61 2 9871 4742 INTERNET: marka@isc.org