On 3/Jan/20 16:25, Ca By wrote:

Mark, you are oversimplifying the market

Isn't that how the kids see it, though :-).



1.  All wireless networks are capped by spectrum capacity / physica.  As a user, you have been on a congested cell site and a congested 802.11 AP.  So, as an operator, you have to ration service. That means cap / qos / $

Agreed - but the cost of deploying a GSM radio is orders of magnitude higher than the cost of deploying wi-fi (even enterprise-grade wi-fi).

Already, customers are doing more than half the work for operators by deploying their own wi-fi into their own homes at their own cost. Folk like Google (with OnHub and Google WiFi) are making the deployment, management and performance of in-home wi-fi a lot easier for users that "feel like the Internet should be simple". This is a good thing for MNO's, especially those already leveraging VoWiFi to control investment in GSM radios without impacting performance. I'm sure MNO's will be less-than-pleased if in-home wi-fi were to suddenly collapse, because all that traffic then shifts back to GSM, e.g., during power outages, ISP outages, e.t.c.

Yes, you probably need as many wi-fi AP's as you need 5G radios, but the cost between them is vastly different that you can provide customers with the benefit at a fraction of the cost. Hell, if the MNO's came together to share wi-fi infrastructure and differentiate services by SSID, in the same location, it might actually work :-).



2.  In the USA, Cable / fiber / copper ISPs sometimes do not sell unlimited either

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.howtogeek.com/424037/googles-stadia-is-about-to-crash-against-isp-data-caps/amp/

Network operators like to set their rates based on some median user profile.  They are not being exploitive. Some users tax the network more and drive the upgrade cycle more than others.

Same here in Africa, when FTTH services were initially rolled out.

In South Africa, as little as 4 years ago, 90% of all FTTH services were cap-based. Today, while you can still get a cap-based FTTH service, I'd say that number has shifted, and 65% - 70% of all FTTH services are now uncapped. Some are maintaining their capped services but bundling in uncapped elements for popular services such as Netflix, e.t.c.

Ultimately, the eco system is showing that the cost of IP Transit is so low (just about US$0 for peering in South Africa on NAPAfrica), to the extent that I can posit all FTTH services in South Africa will be 100% uncapped within the next 2 - 4 years.




3. There are wifi providers, wisps, cable, mno ... they all compete and blur the lines. I think wifi has provided limited benefit to cable operators that have deployed it, but hope for using free spectrum springs enternal

https://www.fiercewireless.com/operators/altice-mobile-garners-its-first-15-000-subs-and-3m-revenue

So I'm not suggesting that wi-fi be deployed as the sole solution. I'm mainly referring to dense parts of a city, country, e.t.c.

In sparsely-populated locations, 2G, 3G, 4G should do just fine (I don't think 5G or anything with a higher frequency makes sense due to the vast spread of eyeballs in these areas).

But in densely-packed areas, up until the point where 5G becomes commercially viable to deploy at scale, utilize the fibre that is massively available to create as many pockets as possible of wi-fi in places where customers do not run their own, e.g., malls, stadia, restaurants, bars, clubs, gas stations, schools, e.t.c., to alleviate the pressure on 4G (or even pressure on dense 5G deployment). One could even go a step further and work with private wi-fi owners (regular people running a shop) to allow MNO's to either ride their wi-fi network or replace it with a shared one.

Of course, if 5G does become reasonably cheap to deploy in the future, then who cares :-). But judging by the rate of development in the wi-fi space, it seems like it's going to be a race between both camps with each new iteration. And as long as GSM capex continues to remain as costly as it has always been - considering the declining margins for MNO's - wi-fi capex will always look like an alternative.

Mark.