In message <CADVasu5qev5gUX_oQ=LyJ2JZom=Vf5S56kgeQ4BYEq20gd7+1w@mail.gmail.com> , james machado writes:
It isn't hard to do some arithmetic and guess that if every household in the world had IPv6 connectivity from a relatively low-density service like the above example, we would still only burn through about 3% of the IPv6 address space on end-users (nothing said about server farms, etc. here) but what does bother me is that the typical end-user today has one, single IP address; and now we will be issuing them 2^16 subnets; yet it is not too hard to imagine a future where the global IPv6 address pool becomes constrained due to service-provider inefficiency.
what is the life expectancy of IPv6? It won't live forever and we can't reasonably expect it too. I understand we don't want run out of addresses in the next 10-40 years but what about 100? 200? 300?
We will run out and our decedents will go through re-numbering again. The question becomes what is the life expectancy of IPv6 and does the allocation plan make a reasonable attempt to run out of addresses around the end of the expected life of IPv6.
It really depends on whether the RIR's recover and, importantly, reallocate address space that is not being paid for or not. If they do this should last for the forseeable future. It would also be my recommendation that RIR's start doing this immediately, if they are not already doing so, so that there is no expectation that you can use address space forever without paying for it.
Jeff S Wheeler <jsw@inconcepts.biz> Sr Network Operator=A0 /=A0 Innovative Network Concepts
james
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