On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
In message <alpine.BSF.2.00.1106060732190.68892@goat.gigo.com>, Jason Fesler wr ites:
But anyway, just consider it: a portion of the major websites go IPv6-only for 24 hours. What happens is that well, 99% of the populace can't reach them anymore, as the known ones are down, they start calling and thus overloading the helpdesks of their ISPs.
Won't happen this year or next. Too much money at stake for the web sites. Only when IPv4 is single digits or less could this be even remotely considered. Even the 0.05% hit for a day was controverial at $dayjob.
IPv4 will never reach those figures. IPv6 isn't preferenced enough for that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 only sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).
I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the internet to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles (about 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage of the future network. Owen