This would also indicate the timeframe needed for deployment of software to support 4 byte AS numbers. FYI, recently issued AS numbers have been in the 22XXX area.
Much of this thread appears to be operating under the flawed assumption that the only ways to multihome[1] involve inserting prefixes of some size (under dispute) into the global[2] routing table.
Alex, Total agreement, and that's why I have written a user requirements draft and posted a suggestion of a focal point for information yesterday. If the only tool you have is a BGP hammer, everything looks like a nail. There are lots of other tools, but no one has ever, it seemed, cataloged the toolbox, and written down a beginner's guide to their applications.
[1] = let's define that, for convenience, as to connect to n>1 different providers of IP connectivity, possibly utilizing redundant tail circuits, in a manner where if one or more, but not all providers fail, service is degraded as little as possible.
[2] = less than global, if it becomes balkanized filtering in response to uncontrolled proliferation of long prefix routes
-- Alex Bligh Personal Capacity